Quieter Monday, Hot Tuesday, Then a Wednesday Severe Storm Setup
Welcome to Monday, Southern Colorado. After a busy weekend of hail, flooding, water over roads, and some strong wind, we finally get a little bit of a breather today. It will not be completely storm-free, but the overall coverage and intensity should be quite a bit lower than what we dealt with through the weekend.
Our Peaks2Plains storm chasers were busy out there. Joseph caught the biggest hailstorms on Saturday south of Rush, then was back out Sunday near Highway 94 south of Hugo in Lincoln County, where hail around an inch and a half was reported along with plenty of water flowing over roads. Near Ramah, a flash flood report showed water covering roads just across the El Paso-Elbert county line. Strong wind was also reported with storms across northeastern El Paso County.
Flooding remained a concern Sunday around the Aspen Acres burn scar, where there were water rescues in the area. Colorado City also had flooding concerns near Applewood Acres, the mobile home community affected by fire. When the ground has already taken on that much water, it does not take a widespread storm day to create localized problems. Even an isolated heavy cell over a vulnerable spot can still cause trouble.
For Monday, the atmosphere is changing. Drier air aloft is moving in and breaking up the monsoon pattern a bit. We started with a few showers across the eastern plains early this morning, but those should continue to diminish. By afternoon and evening, there will still be a couple of showers and thunderstorms around, especially where terrain can help get things going.
The Pikes Peak region is one place to watch. There will still be some low-level moisture in place, and a storm that develops over or near the higher terrain could put down a brief burst of heavy rain. That said, this is not expected to be a repeat of the widespread activity from the last few days. Storm coverage should be much more limited, and most of us will simply have a quieter Monday.
Temperatures head back up today. Expect plenty of 80s across the Front Range, eastern plains, and mountain valleys, with 70s at the higher elevations. Woodland Park should spend the day in the 70s. Along the Arkansas River and farther east toward the Kansas border, highs will climb into the 90s. It will feel more like a summer day again, especially where sunshine hangs on longest.
Any storm that does develop Monday can still bring lightning, a quick downpour, and gusty wind. If you are heading into the mountains, out on the trails, or planning an afternoon drive through an area that has seen recent flooding, keep an eye on the sky. Roads that are normally dry can pick up water quickly under a slow-moving storm, particularly near burn scars and drainage areas.
Tuesday looks hotter ahead of our next front. There will be a little more cloud cover around at times, but the bigger story is the warmth. Most of the region turns hotter, with 90s becoming more common across the plains and especially east of the mountains. Far southeastern Colorado could push even hotter. Make sure the kids, pets, and anyone working outdoors has a way to cool down and plenty of water through the afternoon.
Tuesday afternoon may feature some virga, which is rain falling from clouds but evaporating before it reaches the ground. That can still create some gusty winds underneath, even when the rainfall does not make it down. A few showers or storms are possible, but Tuesday does not look like another widespread wet day either. If you do catch rain, it should generally be much less than what many communities saw over the weekend.
The more important transition arrives Tuesday evening as a cold front backs in from the east. That front may help spark storms over northeastern Colorado as it moves in, but its larger impact for our area comes Wednesday. It brings cooler temperatures, turns low-level winds more easterly, and returns more low-level moisture to the plains.
Wednesday is the day to watch closely. Temperatures come down by around 10 degrees in many spots, but the cooler air does not mean quiet weather. With more moisture in place and increasing wind shear, Wednesday is looking like a day with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms may develop first over the higher terrain, then spread east onto the plains during the afternoon and evening.
The concerns Wednesday include large hail, damaging wind, heavy rain, and renewed flash flooding concerns in sensitive areas. Burn scars, low-water crossings, normally dry washes, and locations that took on a lot of water over the weekend will need extra attention. We will be watching the details closely because the exact placement of the front and storms will matter for who sees the biggest impacts.
For now, use Monday as the quieter reset day. Take care of any storm cleanup, check drains and gutters, and make sure you have a plan to get vehicles or outdoor items under cover if storms approach later Wednesday.
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