THIS Will Cause the Next Recession (no S&P all-time-highs until 2025)
The Fed will cause the next recession.
The S&P 500 will not hit all-time-highs until 1 of 2 things happens:
1) (most likely) The Fed gets monetary policy tight enough to reel inflation back in, which would induce a recession in late 2023 or 2024. The S&P will not hit new highs until investors become confident that recession is ending soon.
2) (less likely)The Fed pulls off a "soft-landing", in which case investors would run stocks up once they're confident the Fed has pulled it off.
I'm projecting an actual recession (not an academic "recession") sometime either late 2023 or 2024, meaning the S&P 500 will not hit new all-time-highs until months after that.
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-Ray Dalio's "How the Economy Works" video: • How The Economic Machine Works by Ray...