Ep39 Predicting the Future Like a Fox
"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one great thing."
Hedgehogs only see the world by a simple rule.
Foxes benefit from a wide variety of rules. For them, the world cannot be reduced to a simple idea.
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RESOURCES
The main source for this video: Philip Tetlock.
https://press.princeton.edu/books/har...
La Fontaine's Fable:
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Chat...
Isaiah Berlin's The Hedgehog and the Fox:
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_H%C3...
The online "hedgehogs vs. foxes" test
https://hedgehogsvsfoxes.com/take-a-t...
The Cognitive Style Scale, a social psychology test used as a proxy for hedgehog/fox classification.
Making Sense of a Most Popular Metaphor in Management: Towards a HedgeFox Scale for Cognitive Styles
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3387/7/3/33
A lecture by P. Tetlock on the distinction between hedgehogs and foxes.
• Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedg...
Evidence provided by Tetlock in his "Good Judgment" project regarding performance differences in prediction tournaments:
https://aiimpacts.org/evidence-on-goo...
PERSONAL: The personal political opinions of the hedgehog in me:
https://laelith.fr/Zet/Declaration/
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Intro music: Koenjiyakkei
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