Washington Read Canada's Recession Wrong — The Real Number Was Right Below It
Canada's recession 2026 arrived on schedule — but Washington misread
what it meant. The same Statistics Canada report that confirmed two
consecutive quarters of contraction also showed April GDP rebounding
0.4%, led by oil and gas. Capital Economics called the trade-induced
recession likely already over. Trump's tariff strategy targeted a
real vulnerability: frozen business investment across five straight
quarters. But consumer spending never broke. One day after Carney's
Economic Club of New York speech, the data seemed to expose him.
By Friday afternoon, it quietly closed that exposure instead. Was
this pressure working — or just bending metal that didn't break?
Sources: Statistics Canada (May 29, 2026), Capital Economics,
BNN Bloomberg, The Globe and Mail.
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