Cyclone
Cyclone #Invest_98S Mar 28, 2021, Sun | 659 km SouthWest of #Diego_Garcia.
Invest 98S has a high chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours.
The area of convection (Invest 98S) previously located near 10.4S 66.0E is now located near 11.7S 68.3E, 659 km (356 nautical miles) southwest of Diego Garcia.
Satellite imagery shows that a well-defined low-level circulation (LLC) remains centered near the northeastern edge of a ragged area of deep convection, which has pulsed in disorganized fashion during the past 24 hours, and has degraded in presentation.
The LLC remains decoupled from the mid-level circulation to its southwest due to northeasterly wind shear of 30-35 km/h (15-20 knots), which is now increasing due to outflow from a large area of convection west of the Maldives.
Images shows that the vortex is less stout than 24 hours ago, with the max wind band no longer wrapping around the north side. Overall, the system's environment is marginally favorable and becoming less hospitable, due to the aforementioned increasing wind shear and a drying air mass to the north of the circulation. However, numerical models continue to show that slight intensification into a short-lived significant tropical cyclone is possible in the near term due to the compact nature of the vortex and warm underlying sea surface temperatures of 29°C.
Invest 98S is expected to soon turn eastward and then northeastward, toward the vicinity of Diego Garcia, following the belt of strong low to mid-level westerly flow along the southern side of a broad circulation west of the Maldives.
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).