That’s a Massive Fire! Strike on the Oil Depot!
In 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked oil refineries and their infrastructure at least 64 times, according to BBC Russian Service journalists. However, experts note that attacks on refineries may cause localized disruptions but do not affect the overall fuel market.
The majority of all attacks—about a quarter—hit oil refineries in the Krasnodar Krai, with 49 fires occurring. The Tuapse Oil Refinery was attacked several times, and in May, it was forced to shut down due to infrastructure damage.
In another southern region, the Rostov Oblast, an oil depot in Proletarsk has been on fire since August 18. On August 28, Ukrainian drones attacked another oil depot in the region, in the Kamensky District. A fire broke out there.
As the BBC notes, at the beginning of the year, attacks primarily targeted refineries important for the domestic market. This changed in the spring, with strikes targeting factories producing products for military equipment.
It is still unclear how such large fires will impact the production and prices of petroleum products – gasoline and diesel – within the country. Gasoline prices have risen significantly this year: from January to July, they rose by more than 5%, and even accelerated in July. Meanwhile, gasoline production volumes for January to July 2024 remained virtually unchanged, according to experts interviewed by the publication. Authorities were ultimately forced to impose an embargo on gasoline exports until the end of the year.
Since the beginning of August, prices for AI-95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange have fallen by 3.4%. The price of AI-92 has increased by 2.8%.
Experts don't directly attribute the price increases to drone attacks; rather, they blame a combination of factors: high demand for gasoline in the summer, scheduled maintenance at refineries, and other factors.
However, rising gasoline prices are expected to lead to higher prices for other goods. According to Kommersant, producers have already reported food price increases of 5-40% in August and September.
Since the beginning of 2024, Russian refineries have been regularly attacked by Ukrainian drones. At some refineries, primary oil refining units have been out of order, requiring repairs.
However, by April, Russia had partially restored the capacity of key refineries. At the end of June, Kommersant, citing Kpler data, reported that Russian refineries were preparing to increase oil refining capacity in the next two months to a record 5.6-5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for this year.
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