📊 TUTORIAL: Debunking Polls
All the questions to ask to determine if a poll is biased, and incidentally, if it seeks more to shape than to measure public opinion.
Acknowledgements:
Michel Lejeune, statistician
Any off-topic comments such as "vote for so-and-so" or "vote for what's-his-name" will be automatically deleted.
Valentine: @sciencedecomptoir
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Yann Solo: @12Parsecs
00:00 Introduction
01:52 Polls during election periods
04:09 Poll hysteria
08:15 The law on polls
11:07 Social networks and fake polls
14:14 Margins of error
24:11 A known case of error
27:43 Selection bias
30:04 Weighting
32:00 Measurement bias
33:40 The favorite personality
37:10 In conclusion
______________________________________________________ SOURCES - USEFUL LINKS
BOOKS
"The Singular Factory of Opinion Polls"
by Michel Lejeune, ed. L'Harmattan
"10 Lessons on Political Polls"
by Alexandre Dézé, ed. De Boeck
ARTICLES
Nature: "Election polling errors across time and space" (2018)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s4156...
"Analyzing Support for U.S. Presidential Candidates in Twitter Polls" (2024)
https://journalqd.org/article/view/5897
Formulation Bias
https://www.persee.fr/doc/socco_1150-...
https://www.persee.fr/doc/rfsoc_0035-...
https://www.credoc.fr/download/pdf/Re...
"Bringing polling activity back into the scientific field" (Michel Lejeune in Le (World)
https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/...
1977 Law
https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/loda/i...
Information sheet for the survey on the favorite personality
https://www.ifop.com/publication/le-t...
Opinion Polls and Political Communication (Sciences Po 2005)
https://www.sciencespo.fr/cevipof/sit...
What Polls Do to Public Opinion public
https://www.persee.fr/doc/polix_0295-...
VIDEOS
A short summary on the "Vite fait" channel:
• 📈Lire les sondages - VITE FAIT
A reading of "Public Opinion Does Not Exist," by Pierre Bourdieu, 1972
• L'opinion publique n'existe pas, Pierre BO...
The full text here:
https://www.acrimed.org/L-opinion-pub...
Clément Viktorovitch: Rhetorical analysis of the Attal/Bardella debate
• Débat Attal - Bardella : l'analyse COMPLÈT...
Le Monde: Are polls reliable? 2020
• Législatives 2024 : les sondages sont-ils ...
Blast: Opinion Polls, the Overdose 2024
• 🦏 SONDAGES D'OPINION : L'OVERDOSE
Secrets of Polling (Further Investigation, France 2, 2017)
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/societe/v...
A Day in the Life (Antenne 2, 1986)
• Pierre Bourdieu. Les sondages et l'usage i...
USEFUL WEBSITES
French Polling Commission
https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/
Election Poll Aggregator European elections
https://www.touteleurope.eu/instituti...
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Corrections:
16:07 To be precise, this is a "fluctuation interval" (the proportion being known).
23:06 For a margin of error, we should say "5 points" (but Odoxa was also wrong).
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MUSIC
World War Outerspace – Audio Hertz
Quand la musique est bonne – Jean-Jacques Goldman
T-rexed – Audio Hertz
Lofi Mallet - Kwon
Hickory Dickory Dock – Trad.
Trabaja Duro Juega Duro – Luna Cantina
Lost and Found – Dan Lebowitz
The Army Goes Rolling Along – US Army Band
Springtime Family Band – The Green Orbs
True Art Real Affection Part 4 – Noir et Blanc Vie
Fynestlyk – Noir et Blanc Vie
100 Degrees Under – RAGE
Smokey Eye – Cheel
Traffic Jam Riddim – Konrad OldMoney
Robots and Aliens – Joel Cummins
Mizuki – Bad Snacks
Opening Theme: The Fork's Tickling (Defakator, music by The Green Orbs)
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