The Karabakh fiasco: Putin's ears were twisted and he was forced into zugzwang.
Author: anti-colorados
Moscow would like to, but can't, send sufficient and, most importantly, regular arms supplies to Armenia. Baku and Ankara know this, and so they methodically grind out the iron they have no replenishment with. This is a smart and sensible approach. Moscow doesn't want to create another problem for itself, and it can't simply give up and get into another fight. It doesn't have the resources, and besides, a major fight with Muslims in general could break out. But whatever one may say, to decide something like this for himself, Putin needs a formal pretext, which Azerbaijan is very carefully not providing and is documenting Armenian provocations.