This Means Nothing Yet ... Next Elliott Wave Target? | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis
In this weeks Elliott Wave analysis for stock and options traders, Rob Roy discusses the impact of weaker-than-expected economic data on stocks and interest rates, highlighting concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts. The video also covers technical analysis of various markets, including crypto, metals, and specific stocks like Meta and Lily, noting significant movements and potential support levels. Additionally, the analysis touches on the implications of market volatility and the importance of key levels for institutional investors.
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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - Introduction
00:44 - US Market Update
01:45 - SPY
03:41 - TNX
04:37 - TLT
06:26 - VIX
08:07 - DIA
09:11 - QQQ
09:54 - IWM
10:39 - Bitcoin
11:24 - ETH
11:39 - GLD
12:17 - SLV
13:16 - USO
14:06 - UNG
15:40 - META
18:00 - LLY
19:23 - WBA
20:52 - CELH
22:05 - TSLA
23:00 - Tradefinder
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This week’s US Market Update, presented by Rob Roy, covers the volatile market movements and significant economic data releases that shaped the trading landscape. It was a holiday-shortened week, but economic news was abundant, with the focus initially on the government's non-farm payrolls report. However, before Friday’s report, several negative economic indicators were released, beginning with the ADP report, which revealed weaker-than-expected private sector payroll growth. This was compounded by a surprisingly high jobless claims report, marking the worst month in 15 years, followed by a weaker-than-anticipated JOLTS report showing fewer job openings. The culmination was the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which also came in below expectations, suggesting that the labor market might be cooling faster than anticipated. Interestingly, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, creating a mixed picture of economic health.
Rob highlights the market's technical reactions to these economic indicators, starting with the S&P 500 (SPY), which had a rough week. After a sharp drop early on, the index closed below the 10, 30, and 50-day moving averages, signaling potential further downside if support levels don't hold. The focus shifts to whether there will be follow-through selling next week or if the market will attempt a recovery. He discusses the wave patterns, mentioning the possibility of the S&P targeting a previous Wave 4 level if the bearish trend continues.
Interest rates are another critical topic, with the TNX showing a downward breakout from a triangle pattern. Rob explains that a downward breakout suggests economic weakness, while an upward breakout could imply rising inflation. The bond market, represented by the TLT, is signaling concerns about a potential recession, as bonds are breaking to the upside, consistent with recessionary fears. The VIX also shows elevated volatility, which could persist as markets digest the latest economic data and Fed decisions.
Rob then examines individual stocks and sectors, including Meta (META), which is at a critical support level of $500. He reviews Lilly (LLY), which is testing key levels that could determine its next move, and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), which is trading below $10, raising concerns among institutional investors. Rob also provides updates on commodities and cryptos, noting significant movements in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and metals like gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). He highlights the potential for more downside in Bitcoin, given its recent breakout from a large symmetrical triangle.