Consolidation, Not Breakdown: What the Charts Say! | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis
Elliott wave analysis continues to show the U.S. market in a critical consolidation phase, with strong underlying support despite a sharp selloff driven by Broadcom-related headlines. While Friday’s tape felt ugly, the S&P 500 remains technically intact, holding near major resistance around 690 with no decisive breakdown. Elevated volume on the selloff was expected, but overall price structure still points to healthy consolidation rather than trend failure. The bull and bear cases remain balanced, with a key inflection near 680 that will determine whether this pause resolves higher or leads to a deeper pullback toward gap fill or the 50-day moving average.
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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - INTRO
00:25 - US Market Overview & SPY
04:03 - TLT
06:29 - TNX
07:07 - SPX & Macro Phases
08:27 - SPX & Fed Liquidity
10:40 - US Dollar
12:49 - DIA
14:09 - QQQ
15:26 - IWM
16:35 - VIX
17:40 - GLD
18:45 - SLV
19:22 - UNG
21:00 - USO
22:30 - ADBE
23:25 - AMD
24:26 - NVDA
25:17 - NFLX
26:34 - TSLA
27:35 - ELF
29:07 - ARM
30:05 - ORCL
31:11 - AVGO
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One of the most important developments is coming from the bond market. Despite a 25 basis point rate cut, the Fed surprised markets by explicitly discussing liquidity injection and confirming short-end Treasury purchases. This has created a notable divergence between short-term and long-term rates, artificially steepening the yield curve. Long-duration bonds (TLT) are breaking lower, consistent with a potential head-and-shoulders pattern and Fibonacci extensions that suggest further downside if support fails. On the 10-year (TNX), rates are pushing higher, raising important questions about how markets will respond as liquidity increases but long-end yields remain elevated.
The U.S. dollar is approaching a critical Elliott wave inflection, holding near a 61.8% retracement with unresolved zigzags still in play. The dollar remains within a “Goldilocks” range that avoids stressing global trade or capital flows, but upcoming moves in rates and liquidity could determine whether the next leg is higher or lower.
Across major indices, the Dow has tested new highs but failed to generate a new impulse structure, while the Nasdaq is under pressure from valuation concerns in AI-related stocks. Small caps continue to send mixed signals, reflecting both risk appetite and sensitivity to interest rates. Volatility remains subdued, reinforcing the view that recent weakness has not yet caused technical damage.
In commodities, gold continues to break out cleanly from a symmetrical triangle, while silver shows signs of short-term exhaustion after an extended run. Natural gas has experienced a dramatic round-trip following speculation around AI-driven demand and data center delays, while crude oil remains under pressure after OPEC signaled no immediate production cuts.
Individual stocks show increasing dispersion. Strength in names like Adobe contrasts with technical stress in AMD, Nvidia, Oracle, and Broadcom, where key support and resistance levels will determine whether pullbacks remain corrective or turn into larger trend shifts.
The market remains supported by liquidity, but leadership is narrowing and follow-through will matter. Key technical levels across indices, rates, and leading stocks will determine whether consolidation resolves higher or signals a broader reset.