Session 6. Robert Lempert: A new decision science for complex systems
Title: A new decision science for complex systems: A decade of enabling tools
Abstract: Quantitative information is often necessary for good decisions. But successful decision support must also enable decision makers to engage effectively with the information. This can prove a particular challenge for so-called “wicked problems,” which are characterized by the presence of deep uncertainty, contested interests and values, unclear system boundaries, and often non-linear dynamics. In addition, as the ability to simulate complex systems improves, so too does the need for quantitative decision-support methods that can make use of the unique types of information such simulations provide about a fast-changing, contingent, often hard-to-predict world. In recent years, methods such as robust decision making and scenario discovery have enabled significant advances in decision support under such conditions. These approaches are made possible by advanced computational capabilities, data analysis, and visualizations methods and are specifically designed to help identify and adjudicate trade-offs in the presence of deep uncertainty. Drawing on examples from climate change and other policy areas, this talk will survey the history and current application of robust decision making and scenario discovery and address directions for the future.
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