Even 0.1% P(Doom) Is UNACCEPTABLE — Casey Muratori, World-Class Coder
Casey Muratori is one of the top programming educators on YouTube. He won't put a probability on the risk of AI doom — he doesn't have P(Doom) — but he believes the AI extinction threat is worth taking seriously. I probe how he arrived at that position.
00:00:00 — Cold Open
00:00:31 — Introducing Casey Muratori
00:02:07 — Recap of Crypto Series: Is Crypto Dead?
00:11:46 — On Programming & Why Coding Agents Don't Faze Casey
00:18:51 — Coding Is a Craft: Drum Machine Example
00:36:24 — Pivoting to AI: Can We Forecast Its Capabilities?
00:43:36 — Debating if AI Can Acquire Taste
00:54:59 — What's Your P(Doom)™?
01:04:11 — Even 0.1% X-Risk Is Unacceptable
01:07:34 — Modeling Uncertainty: Bayesianism vs "Tie Goes to the Catastrophe"
01:09:34 — Is This Pascal's Wager?
01:17:12 — Casey's (Cynical) Mainline Scenario
01:24:22 — Would You Un-Invent the Internet?
01:27:18 — Let's Ride the Doom Train 🚂
01:27:51 — Can AI Become Ridiculously Powerful?
01:29:11 — Will AI Preserve Humanity (Orthogonality Thesis)?
01:32:26 — Will AI Seek Power (Instrumental Convergence)?
01:36:06 — Wrap-Up
Transcript, links, and show notes: https://doomdebates.com/p/even-01-pdo...