Import substitution in aviation. Sanctions and prospects.
10 million dollars a day.
That's how much civil aviation costs Russian taxpayers.
We'll talk about this today, as well as about all the import substitution trends in the aviation industry.
We'll also talk about safety, about the prospects of flying somewhere, and most importantly, getting there, about the development of the industry, trends and forecasts.
In previous issues, I talked about the impact of sanctions on Russian aviation, about the fact that a brilliant solution was found - to transfer aircraft from foreign registers to the Russian one, effectively depriving foreign owners of their real estate (yes, yes, I didn't misspeak, according to the law, an aircraft is real estate, no matter how strange it may sound).
But only in Russia are aircraft really perceived as investments in real estate - many planes, even those that were expropriated from Western companies, have turned into stationary objects on the aprons, into donors of spare parts for still-flying aircraft. A sort of 50-millionth set of nuts, bolts and cables.
If you look at the automotive industry, the Lada Granta is produced without airbags and ABS - precisely because in mid-May the government allowed the production of cars without ABS, airbags and with the Euro-0 environmental class. The certification rules were simplified due to sanctions against Russia, due to which some components became unavailable in Russia.
And this is not aviation, where the chance of dying on an airplane is less than the chance of dying at home in your bed.
And, right at the same time as all this, in the aviation industry, many officials, bloggers and journalists are bursting with optimism and calm, believing that the sanctions will give impetus to import substitution, the dynamic development of the Russian aviation industry and other pleasant bonuses.
Of course, because a scheduled aircraft is much simpler than a Lada Granta Classic. Well, ABS and window lifts are complex systems, but a laser three-axis inertial system that allows detecting the slightest deviations in severe turbulence and conditions of complete lack of visibility is not.
The only new Russian aircraft that is fully flying is the Sukhoi Superjet. Its design began in 2000, and Boeing (unexpectedly) participated in this process. In 2006, Boeing left the project due to the developers' decision to take the cabin of Airbus as a model, also unexpectedly.
And the engines on this aircraft were immediately designed together with Snecma, now Safran Aircraft Engines, which in a consortium created engines for the Boeing 737, 747 and 777, as well as for the Airbus 320, 330, 340 and 380 and produces from 10 to 50% of the filling of these engines.
Avionics - THALES. Control system — LIEBHERR Life support systems — LIEBHERR. Chassis — MESSIER DOWTY. Fuel system — INTERTECHNIQUE (ZODIAC) / Interior — B/E AEROSPACE. Fire extinguishing system — AUTRONICS (CURTISS WRIGHT). Oxygen system — B/E AEROSPACE. APU — HONEYWELL. Crew seats — IPECO. Hydraulic system — PARKER. Electrical supply system — HAMILTON SUNDSTRAND. Engine vibration sensors — VIBRO-METER. Wheels, brakes — GOODRICH
The aircraft was ordered by Mexican Interjet - 22 aircraft, Irish Cityjet - 15 and an option for another 16, and Russian RedWings - 15 aircraft. The latter, having received the first aircraft in 2014, already in 2016 refused to operate this type, as commercially unprofitable. Cityjet refused in 2019, Interjet went bankrupt altogether.
The problem was in the maintenance of aircraft and spare parts.
Even the head of the United Aircraft Company admitted that Russian aircraft are not competitive. He said that no one needs Russian civilian aircraft with Boeing and Airbus airliners.
They decided to correct the situation with the name - Sukhoi Superjet New.
But as for the components, there is no progress in import substitution yet.
In May 2015, at a meeting with journalists, the CEO of the Technodinamika enterprise, Maxim Kuzyuk, said that the holding planned the first deliveries of assembled chassis for the Russian regional aircraft Sukhoi Superjet 100 for 2018.
The CEO of the Technodinamika holding, Igor Nasenkov (the head has changed), indicated that the holding will develop and deliver to the customer a pilot batch of new chassis for the Sukhoi Superjet - New by 2023. Both promises have not yet been fulfilled. It was also announced that the BINS-2015 laser inertial navigation will be tested.
However, there is a "quasi-planned order" for spare parts for the SSJ New and Irkut MC-21, which are also obviously uncompetitive.
There are problems with the development of avionics and its certification.
Moreover, this September the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) announced serious problems with civil aviation safety in Russia, placing a red flag on the country.
The flight range of Russian aircraft is practically limited to Russia; only companies that are not afraid of having their aircraft arrested abroad fly abroad.
Taking this into...