Cyclone
Cyclone #Invest_98S Mar 27, 2021, Sat | 813 km West-SW of #Diego_Garcia.
Invest 98S has a high chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone over the next 24 hours.
The area of convection (Invest 98S) previously located near 9.9S 64.9E is now located near 10.2S 65.6E, 813 km (439 nautical miles) west-southwest of Diego Garcia.
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined low-level circulation center (LLCC) located near the northeast edge of a mass of convection that has exhibited pulsing bursts during the past 6 hours.
Satellite imagery shows that the mid-level circulation center is displaced west of the LLCC as a result of 20-30 km/h (10-15 knots) of easterly wind shear, and the LLCC is partially exposed on the northeast side.
However, an ASCAT-C image shows a compact circulation that has seen its radius of maximum wind contract substantially to around 37 km (20 nautical miles) during the past 12 hours, with a band of 55 km/h winds (30 knots) encompassing the entire northwestern semicircle.
Healthy upper-level outflow is observed in all quadrants except northeast. Invest 98S is located in a mostly favorable environment with sea surface temperatures around 29°C and light-moderate wind shear.
Water vapor satellite imagery and precipitable water data show a band of dry air located about 370 km (200 nautical miles) southwest of the system, but does not appear to be wrapping into the circulation at present.
Forecast models have mixed opinions on development, with most showing only slight intensification of 98S in the short term. However, most models show 98S with a broader and weaker circulation than is being observed, suggesting that development chances are higher.
Invest 98S is expected to track east-southeastward and then turn eastward under the influence of a westerly wind band to its north. Surface winds are around 50-60 km/h (28-33 knots).
Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Credit : windy.com, zoom.earth
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