2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and the rest of his team NOAA, are predicting a 40 percent chance that the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will be near-normal. There is a 30 percent chance of either an above-normal or below-normal season.
We can expect a likely range of 9 to 15 named storms, of which 4 to 8 are expected to become hurricanes. 2 to 4 of those hurricanes are expected to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
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Transcript:
Hi, I’m Dr. Gerry Bell. I’m the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season produced some devastating storms, with the landfall of both Florence and Michael. Also last year, the combined eastern and central Pacific hurricane regions were incredibly active, and produced 23 named storms throughout the season.
This year's 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1st through November 30th, is almost here so it is time to start getting prepared.
Here at NOAA, we're predicting a 40 percent chance that the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will be near-normal. There is a 30 percent chance of the season being above normal and also a 30% chance of the season being below normal.
Overall, this year's outlook reflects competing climate factors. The ongoing El Niño is expected to help suppress the activity. In contrast, warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and an expected stronger-than-normal west African monsoon favor increased activity.
As we saw last year, it takes just one storm to do tremendous damage. Hurricane Florence in September 2018 brought record rainfall which produced significant inland flooding in the Carolinas. Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida panhandle as a quick-developing Category 5 storm, and left a wake of destruction in its path.
These two storms alone resulted in close to $50 billion dollars in damage, and more than 100 lives were lost.
Hurricane preparedness is critically important for the 2019 hurricane season, just as it is every year. NOAA works closely with our partners to help emergency managers and communities make targeted decisions to support public safety.
Hurricane preparedness is not limited to near-coastal communities, as we saw last year with the inland flooding from Hurricane Florence. While strong winds cause damage, nine out of 10 hurricane fatalities result from coastal storm surge and inland flooding.
More than 80 million people in the United States live in areas that could be impacted by a hurricane, and only a fraction of those live along the immediate coast.
Although we are predicting a near-normal season this year, that is still a lot of activity. Now is the time to get prepared.
Start by determining your vulnerability to hurricanes, such as-- storm surge, inland flooding, and strong winds. Develop a family evacuation plan and ensure your disaster supply kit is ready. Also make sure you have enough supplies to last several days.
Write down your evacuation plan and share it with friends and family, so that you will be prepared when a hurricane threatens. Also, talk with your neighbors about their storm preparations and evacuation plans, too.
Visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay on top of any watches and warnings. Be sure to visit FEMA’s website ready.gov for additional hurricane preparedness tips.
Hurricane preparation starts at home. Start today, and have a safe hurricane season. Together we can build a more Weather-Ready Nation.