Big Move, Bigger Question: Can It Hold? | Elliott Wave S&P500 VIX Technical Analysis
Elliott wave view and playbook for the week: after a too‑vertical rally to SPY 690, I’m treating the pullback as a healthy correction after the gap‑up surge. The 50‑day moving average is the first line to defend, with 660 the bigger shelf. VIX still can’t crack 15, and the Fed’s pushback on a “guaranteed” December cut nudged yields higher and firmed the dollar. A short‑term reflex bounce is possible given near‑term oversold readings.
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:: Sections in this Video ::
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00:00 - Introduction
00:24 - US Market Update
03:14 - VIX
04:35 - TLT
05:58 - Consumer Sentiment
07:14 - TNX
07:44 - US Dollar
09:51 - DIA
10:40 - QQQ
12:24 - IWM
13:36 - UNG
14:42 - USO
15:31 - GLD
17:03 - SLV
17:52 - BITB
19:19 - ETHW
20:14 - AMZN
22:46 - TSLA
24:45 - BABA
28:18 - XLRE
29:39 - NVDA
31:21 - AMD
32:27 - ORCL
33:18 - AAPL
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Bonds: TLT has checked the triangle boxes—breakout, throwback to the apex, stall near the 50‑day—while TNX turned up as the market repriced cuts. A steady dollar is fine; too strong risks becoming the next earnings “explanation.”
Indexes: DIA broadly tracks SPY; QQQ retraced the vertical breakout, filled gaps, and is testing the 50‑day; IWM already slipped below its 50‑day, consistent with high rate sensitivity and its risk‑barometer role.
Commodities: UNG has a weather bid and can squeeze toward 15 before I reassess. Crude (USO) is range‑bound; a small triangle may break but likely without big follow‑through. Metals are coiling—GLD in a descending triangle just above the 50‑day, SLV in a symmetrical triangle. Watch GLD support: a break opens the low 330s; topside keeps the breakout‑consolidate rhythm intact.
Crypto: BITB lost 60; 55 is must‑hold—fail there and the vacuum toward 45 opens fast. ETHW shows a similar profile and favors 20. Both sit below the 10‑day, so oversold bounces can happen, but bulls need the 10‑ and 50‑day back to revive any year‑end squeeze.
Single names: AMZN’s gap/AI one‑two was faded per the “vertical up, vertical down” rule; above 240 I like basing with room for a 10‑day tag. TSLA: 50‑day first support; 400 is the line in the sand—below it, 350 comes quickly. BABA has a clean descending triangle inside an Elliott wave 5; respect both directions even if higher looks tempting. XLRE is range‑bound with rates a headwind.
AI/semis: NVDA sits on its 50‑day—aggressive can try a tight‑risk bounce; conservative wait for a decisive recapture of ~200. AMD is unwinding a strong earnings/AI pop—watch 225. ORCL already filled its AI gap. AAPL is stretched to a 161.8% zigzag extension; I lean sideways rather than materially higher for now.