The Syrian Kurdish Knot: Losing Everything Because of Your Own Stupidity (Lessons for Ukraine)
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Turkish troops continue to conduct a military operation in northern Syria. The formal goal is to ensure the security of border areas. The real goal is to strengthen their position in Syria and, at the same time, limit the influence of the Kurds in the region. The most tragic thing for the latter is the common interests of almost all key actors, where the self-proclaimed Syrian Kurdistan is only a platform for the implementation of their plans and interests.
Let's deal with the "AZs"
0:56 History of the issue: why is there no Kurdistan. There are more than 40 million Kurds, according to the agreements concluded after the First World War, they should have their own state. There were attempts, but the balance of power changed, and the Kurdish leaders themselves could not agree among themselves. As a result, Ararat Kurdistan, the Mahabad Republic - are just names from a history course. Since 1920, various groups of Kurds have always acted "on different sides of the barricades." When some turned their gaze to the USSR, others worked with the West. As soon as the former became disillusioned with the Soviet Union and began to work with the USA or Europe, the latter went to the Soviets. Result: no unity - no state. And the Kurds are a bargaining chip.
6:39 Civil war as a chance for the Kurds of Syria, Turkey and Iraq. In 2011, Syrian Kurdistan could have received the colossal autonomy that Assad offered. Kurdish political leaders decided to raise the stakes, occupy new territories, get access to the sea and only then talk about political development. At the same time, they did not make contact with either Assad or other branches of the Syrian opposition. 9:46 Turkish position. Against the backdrop of the fight against the Kurdistan Workers' Party in Turkey, the need to conduct full-scale military operations, Ankara was not interested in strengthening the Syrian Kurds, much less in the emergence of an autonomous Kurdistan along its entire border. Turkey began with operations against the Kurds in Iraq, forcing them to move from confrontation in 2005-11 to cooperation from 2012 to the present day. Then came the turn of the Turkish Kurds and opposition to Syrian Kurdistan. For this, detachments of Syrian Turkmen were supported and a kind of analogue of the Ukrainian "DPR" and "LPR" was created in northeastern Syria. As in the case of Ukraine, formally "there are no Turks there", but the territories are completely controlled and financed by the Turkish military. Then followed two military operations (remember the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and Debaltseve) as a result of which the Kurds lost not only access to the sea, but also the Afrin region. Where, by the way, ethnic cleansing took place.
14:28 The next stage is the 2019 operation. In which the interests of all parties coincided. The Turks wanted to strengthen their influence, get an expansion of the "Turkish DPR" and, in the future, a special status for these territories. The Russian Federation - acting as a mediator between Turkey, Syria and the Kurds, strengthen its position and ensure acceptable working conditions for Russian oil companies in the region. The United States - to leave the region "with their heads held high". The Kurds had a choice: to fight on 4 fronts or to negotiate with Assad. They chose the latter. The result is that they will not receive real autonomy and are already surrendering the sphere of maintaining law and order and local government to the Syrian opposition.
And this can be perceived as a lesson for Ukraine - if you do not soberly assess your positions, cannot reach an agreement internally, mindlessly hope for "allies" who should solve your problems - you can lose.
Conclusion: "start thinking, do not repeat the path of the Kurds"