How will the COVID-19 (coronavirus) epidemic end?
When will the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic end? How many people will die from it? How many people will get an infection? How much should you worry about it? This video hopefully can give you a sense of what to expect via a simple mathematical model. It is a standard one with reasonable accuracy, called the SIR model, which illustrates exponential growth / decay depending on the ratio between two constants, called the basic reproduction ratio / number (i.e. R0). The prediction from the model is not that great...
We are still in the exponential growth stage, but eventually it has to be a logistic curve, and the video discusses where the plateau will be, and the time scale at which the plateau will be achieved.
The video seems to be making a wild claim, but it really isn't. This is what some UK health officials predicted as well: https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Sources:
The spreadsheet generating the numbers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
Worldometer statistics: https://www.worldometers.info/coronav...
SIR model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compart...
Other than commenting on the video, you are very welcome to fill in a Google form linked below, which helps me make better videos by catering for your math levels:
https://forms.gle/QJ29hocF9uQAyZyH6
If you want to know more interesting Mathematics, stay tuned for the next video!
SUBSCRIBE and see you in the next video!
#coronavirus #COVID_19 #epidemic #mathematics #mathemaniac #math #washyourhands #dontgoout #pandemic #flattenthecurve