Global Economy 2025-2040: AI, BRICS+, and the Green Transition
In this video, we explore the fundamental changes currently transforming the global economy. Drawing on the latest analytical reports and scientific research, we will analyze five key drivers that will shape our future over the next two decades.
1. The Shift to a Circular Economy. Humanity has reached a dangerous threshold: annual resource extraction has exceeded 100 billion tons. Our current "linear" consumption model (take, make, throw away) is depleting the planet. Currently, the world is only 6.9% circular, and this figure is declining. We will discuss how closed-loop production and recycling will help us live within the limits of Earth's capabilities.
2. Artificial Intelligence as a Growth Driver. AI is the "new electricity." The technological revolution in machine learning has the potential to increase labor productivity by 14-40% in certain industries. Experts estimate that the implementation of AI could add 0.8% to 1.3% to annual global economic growth over the next decade. We will examine how the automation of tasks in production and idea generation will change the labor market.
3. Global Energy Transition and Investment. Green energy is not just about ecology; it is the largest investment trend in history. To achieve the 2030 targets, the world needs to triple its renewable energy capacity. This will require colossal investments—up to $2.4 trillion per year by 2030. We will examine the barriers hindering this process and why fossil fuels still retain their role in energy security.
4. New World Order: BRICS+ and De-Dollarization. The economic center of power is shifting from the G7 to the countries of the Global South. The BRICS+ alliance already accounts for over 32% of global GDP, surpassing the G7 in this indicator. We will analyze de-dollarization processes: from the transition to settlements in national currencies to the creation of alternative financial institutions, such as the New Development Bank. Experts predict that the dollar's dominance may end by 2040 amid the rise of multipolarity.
5. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and the Transformation of Trade. Global trade is facing fragmentation and supply chain restructuring. In this context, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) promise to make international payments faster, cheaper, and more transparent, cutting out unnecessary intermediaries and eliminating time delays. We will discuss how new payment technologies can help avoid "financial fragmentation."
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