Non-Prediction and the Three Body Problem, Initial Conditions, Inflation and Interest Rates
Some time ago in the Twitter / X stream, we commented that intra-day, risk had reached a pin-point structure, at which point we retreated from that area in a number of markets.
So was that a prediction? Anyone that spends any time around me knows my distaste for price-target trading, and predictions overall. What are we trying to determine with the state of Macro-Economics at this point? Inflation data? Data-dependent? Reverse of Globalization to structural inflation thesis?
We discuss this and more in the following entry ...
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Music and Risk Disclaimer
00:24 Introduction to the Weekly Note for those who are new
02:08 On Vacation to the U.P. of Michigan
03:51 Non-Prediction: N-Body Problem - My Distaste for the word "Prediction" in Markets
04:06 Non-Prediction: Laymen definition of the Three Body or N-Body Problem
05:08 Non-Prediction: Trading is About Identifying Good Area to Mitigate Risk
05:43 Tangent: Higher For Longer + or H4L+ Thesis is Congealing
07:00 Tangent: H4L + ... the Market play catch-up to the Fed to Economic Data
09:30 Non-Prediction: Skill in Macro-Economics is trying to define Initial Conditions
11:15 Higher For Longer + (H4L+) Thesis: Interest Rate Cutes in 2024?
14:53 Higher For Longer + : What Economic Pain Really Looks Like? 1978 to 1982
17:20 Bitcoin and Crypto: Not a Medium of Exchange
18:18 Bitcoin and Crypto: Tradeable Asset with Weekly Stance
19:43 Summary and Conclusion
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