Modernized Forecast Process
This presentation by Randy Graham (Chief, Central Region, Science and Technology Integration Division), Greg Heavener (WCM, WFO Boulder) and Andy Just (Techniques Development Meteorologist, Central Region, Science and Technology Integration Division) was provided as part of the Central Region Fall Symposium in November 2023. In the presentation they discuss the need to modernize the forecast process based on ensemble and probabilistic data. They review the concepts behind a modernized Area Forecast Discussion and the philosophy of a modernized forecast process centered on identifying messaging opportunities based on ensemble and probabilistic data and identifying a messaging strategy based on predictability/confidence.