What Causes Wars: An Introduction to Crisis Bargaining Theory
Why do wars occur? This lecture frames war as a deeper puzzle than it first may seem. We begin by establishing how, in principle, there should always exist settlements that leave both parties better off than if they fought a war. Thus, for wars to occur, there must be both a substantive disagreement between the parties and a bargaining friction that prohibits them from reaching such a deal.
We then examine three common explanations. First is shifting power causing a commitment problem, a common issue today with China and Taiwan, in alliance politics, and central to nuclear proliferation. Second is asymmetric information, which played a clear role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The final mechanism is issue indivisibility, which appears reasonable but falls apart upon substantive interrogation.
0:00 Outline of Lecture
2:53 Varieties of Explanations for War
7:20 Why Examine at Rational Explanations?
19:30 Why Examine Unitary Actor Explanations?
23:48 Visualizing the Inefficiency Puzzle
34:33 Proving the General Applicability of the Puzzle
46:55 Why War Is a Two-Ingredient Recipe
51:15 Overview of Bargaining Frictions
53:16 Shifting Power and Commitment Problems
1:00:01 Application: PRC-Taiwan Relations
1:03:53 Application: The Gaza War
1:05:24 Application: NATO, Russia, and Ukraine
1:08:38 Application: Nuclear Proliferation
1:11:04 Application: Wars of Opportunism
1:13:53 Asymmetric Information and Miscalculation
1:23:16 Why Communicating Strength and Resolve Is Hard
1:27:12 Application: Putin's Gamble in Ukraine
1:33:02 Issue Indivisibility
1:38:05 Dividing "Indivisible" Goods
1:40:48 Side Payments
1:43:06 Wars of Succession
1:45:21 Conclusion
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