0:00 Introduction by Roland Paris
2:18 Stuart J. Kaufman
42:40 Question Period
Stuart J. Kaufman will present a theory of why ethnic conflict sometimes leads to civil war, and sometimes to a clash of contentious social movements, but at other times does not disturb the routine flow of politics. The proposed answer is based on the mechanisms of symbolic politics, starting with the symbolic predispositions (values, biases and prejudices) that are most common in the population. In symbolic politics, would-be political leaders appeal to these symbolic predispositions (SYDs) by using emotionally potent symbols. In ethnic politics, the key SYDs are prejudices against other ethnic groups. Ethnic groups are motivated to mobilize for political action if they feel a threat to group interests, status or identity. If they feel a physical threat, they may mobilize for war. Successful mobilization depends not only on SYDs and perceived threat, but also on credible leadership and effective organization.