For your information: NOAA's CFS from July through the 2023/24 meteorological winter. Not a forec...
It's been almost three months since we did a purely "NOAA broadcast." NOAA (the American weather agency) publishes various models, such as the GFS (Global Forecast System) and the CFS (Climate Forecast System). From the CFS, which, like the GFS, is calculated four times a day, monthly forecasts are cobbled together, indicating whether it will be too warm, too cold, too wet, or too dry.
This monthly output is not only incredibly erratic, but was recently virtually unusable because almost nothing fit – keyword "hot spring"*.
Let's put that aside for now and look ahead to the coming months. The individual monthly calculations now extend up to December, and quarterly averages (3 months) extend up to and including the meteorological winter of 2023/24. And there's a really interesting twist: After a significantly too mild (too warm) December, the overall winter, on the other hand, is only slightly too mild, i.e. At least one winter month would therefore be too cold. The winter is also expected to be too wet. That alone is almost a novelty, but there's another extremely interesting aspect...
(* NOAA's summer calculations initially predicted "June will be averagely warm and slightly too wet, with the peak summer months of July and August dry and hot." June, which until recently had been forecast to be extremely dry and very warm, was, in some respects, an exceptionally correct correction. Respect for that!)