What will the weather pattern be like from autumn into winter? A model overview of the large-scal...
By popular demand—and of course, out of my own curiosity ;)—here's a rough overview of the most significant and important weather patterns for the coming months up to January. For the sake of completeness, we're including the monthly maps from NOAA, colloquially known as the "NOAA model." For over a year, these maps haven't even come close to being accurate, but they're part of the overall model analysis. (This isn't meant as bashing or anything like that; it's a fact. For example, according to this model, we would have had a historic drought for the past year, followed by the wettest period since weather records began.)
The basic conditions for a below-average winter like those of 1961/90 are hardly present. In an environment where average deviations are only 3 degrees Celsius, this is almost unheard of. However, that doesn't mean there can't be wintry episodes—and there will be. We'll go through the most important weather patterns.
For example, according to this model, we would have experienced a historic drought for the past year, followed by the wettest period since weather records began. Finally, to reiterate in writing: This is not a forecast, but rather a compilation of significant large-scale weather patterns that are calculated repeatedly, and which I comment on. The deviations in the NOAA maps refer to the average for the years 1991-2020.