How We REALLY Predict Asteroid Impacts

Опубликовано: 29 Июль 2026
на канале: Cosmos:elementary
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Sometimes, in movies, astronomers discover an asteroid and instantly determine that it will definitely collide with Earth. Of course, that's nonsense. But how do we actually calculate the trajectory of a potentially hazardous object if we only see it as a point in the sky?

00:00 - Intro
05:20 - Is it possible?
11:15 - Modern methods
21:44 - First attempts

Sources:
Deep Impact
https://gizmodo.com/a-scientist-respo...
Orbits
https://blogs.esa.int/mex/2014/03/07/...
https://astronomy.com/magazine/ask-as...
https://www.lpi.usra.edu/books/Astero...
Student project
https://www.eso.org/public/events/ast...
Asteroid Orbit Determination Project
http://www.columbia.edu/~my2317/aster...
Gauss and Ceres
https://sites.math.rutgers.edu/~cherl...
https://math.berkeley.edu/~mgu/MA221/...
Book
https://archive.schillerinstitute.com...
Newton
https://principia.blog/2021/03/21/new...
Asteroid search
https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/fi...
https://nap.nationalacademies.org/rea...
https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/ful...
https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense...
Database
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/
https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list
ATLAS
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-ast...
NEOSM
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/nea...
Pan-STARRS
http://www2.ifa.hawaii.edu/research/P...