Are Polls Wrong? Is Trump Actually Winning?
The past 24 hours have seen some real changes in headlines and hardline positions in the mainstream press and democratic pollsters. Last weeks overwhelming confidence has suddenly started giving away to last minute worries amid a continued day by day similarities to 2016 polling issues, and Trump continuing to track upwards, narrowing the supposed Biden gap.
Additionally, the introduction "social circle" polling into the averages is severely cutting into Bidens lead. This new form of polling has been more accurate than traditional polling in the past 7 elections it has been tested in, including the 2018 middterms. In this form of polling, pollsters bypass psychological hesitancy and social pressures on polled individuals by allowing them to project to their neighbors.
Instead of asking "who are you voting for" which leads to high levels of deception and outright lies pollsters have determined that more accurate projections can be made by asking "who do you think your neighbors are voting for." This method of questioning removes personal risk from those being polled and allows them to project their own thoughts onto strawmen, resulting in more honest insight into the minds of average Americans.
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