Dusty Turner - World Leaders, Military Service, and Their Propensity for War
World Leaders, Military Service, and Their Propensity for War by Dusty Turner
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Abstract: This presentation delves into the question of whether leaders with military experience are more likely to lead their countries into war. Utilizing the Leader Experience and Attribute Descriptions (LEAD) dataset, which comprises personal lives and experiences of over 2,000 state leaders from 1875–2004, the study examines various factors related to leaders' propensity for conflict initiation. Drawing upon a multitude of sources, including academic literature, obituaries, military archives, and more, the data covers aspects of leaders' childhoods, educations, personal lives, and pre-leadership occupations. The research employs a purposeful selection model-building technique, starting with univariable analyses and progressing through several multivariable models to assess the influence of different attributes on war initiation. Interspersed with anecdotal illustrations and personal backgrounds of leaders, the study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the intricate relationship between a leader's military experience and their inclination towards war. The presented findings do not represent the official views of the Army but contribute significantly to the broader discourse on civil-military relations and war dynamics.
Bio: Major Dusty Turner is an Operations Research Systems Analyst for the United States Army. He most recently served as a Data Scientist for the Center for Army Analysis in Fort Belvoir, VA. He is currently a Statistical Science PhD student at Baylor University in Waco, Texas. After completion of the program, he will serve on the faculty at the United States Military Academy at West Point, NY.
Twitter: / dtdusty
Presented at the 2023 Government & Public Sector R Conference (October 19, 2023)