Italian supervolcano Campi Flegrei could erupt.
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The Campi Flegrei volcano, located in southern Italy, has a rich and worrying history. Its last eruption occurred in 1538, but the volcano has shown signs of unrest for over 70 years. During this period, tens of thousands of small earthquakes have occurred, and the coastal town of Pozzuoli has been raised by almost 4 meters due to volcanic activity. That's approximately the height of a double-decker bus.
Recently, a new study was published in the journal Nature’s Communications Earth & Environment, which sheds light on the volcano's current state. The study was conducted by researchers from UCL (University College London) and the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV).
The researchers used a model developed at UCL to interpret earthquake patterns and ground uplift around the volcano. This model is based on the physics of how rocks break and has been applied in real time to a volcano for the first time. Since the model's first use in 2017, Campi Flegrei has behaved as predicted, with an increasing number of small earthquakes indicating pressure from below.
The study concluded that parts of the volcano have been stretched almost to the point of rupture. The lead author, Professor Christopher Kilburn of UCL Earth Sciences, explained that Campi Flegrei is approaching a rupture, but this does not guarantee an eruption. For an eruption to occur, the rupture must open a fissure in the Earth's crust and magma must be pressing in the right place.
Dr. Nicola Alessandro Pino, from the Vesuvius Observatory, representing the INGV in Naples, added that parts of the volcano are weakening. This means it could rupture even if the stresses pulling it are less than they were during the last crisis 40 years ago.
It's important to note that Campi Flegrei isn't an obvious volcano, as instead of growing in the form of a traditional mountain, it takes the form of a gentle depression 12-14 km across, known as a caldera. This explains why 360,000 people now live on its surface.
Over the past decade, the ground beneath Pozzuoli has been rising at a rate of about 10 cm per year. Small, persistent earthquakes have also been recorded for the first time since the mid-1980s, with over 600 earthquakes recorded in April.
The shaking has been caused by the movement of fluids about 3 km below the surface. Some of these fluids may be molten rock, or magma, and some may be natural volcanic gases. The earthquake pattern from 2020 suggests that the rock is responding inelastically, breaking rather than bending.
The research team explained that the effect of the unrest since the 1950s is cumulative, meaning that an eventual eruption could be preceded by relatively weak signals, such as a lower rate of ground uplift and fewer earthquakes. This was observed in the eruption of the Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea in 1994.
Furthermore, the current tensile strength of Campi Flegrei (the maximum stress a material can withstand before breaking when stretched) is likely about one-third of what it was in 1984, according to the researchers.
Dr. Stefano Carlino, from the Vesuvius Observatory, emphasized that an eruption is not inevitable. He explained that, like all volcanoes that have been quiet for generations, Campi Flegrei could settle into a new routine of gentle uplift and subsidence, as seen in similar volcanoes around the world, or simply return to rest. He stressed the importance of being prepared for all outcomes.
Professor Kilburn and his colleagues now plan to apply the UCL volcano fracturing model to other volcanoes that have reactivated after a long period of time, seeking to establish more reliable criteria for deciding whether an eruption is likely. Currently, eruptions are predicted using statistical data unique to each volcano, rather than relying on fundamental principles that can be applied to multiple volcanoes.
In short, the Campi Flegrei volcano is showing signs of weakening and approaching a rupture. However, an eruption is not guaranteed, and the scientific community is working hard to improve predictions and ensure communities are prepared for any outcome. Ongoing research and advances in modeling are essential to understanding and mitigating the risks associated with this volcano and others around the world.
SOURCES:
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-relea...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s4324...
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