Why Analytics Say to Go for 2 When Trailing by 8 Points Late
Since 2018, NFL teams have been obsessed with going for 2 point conversions when down by 8 points, instead of kicking the extra point to cut the lead to 7. In this video I will attempt to explain the analytical approach of why going for 2 makes sense (almost) every time!
I've seen a few analysis videos on this topic before, but I figured I would attempt to explain the logic in a way that should make more sense :)
Note #1: I used Stathead's game search, but I could not find a way to find games where a team was trailing by 14 points at ANY TIME during the 4th quarter, so there are certainly many more games I'm missing. For our purposes, the sample size of 2108 games is plenty.
Note #2: Here are those 41 games where a team forced OT when trailing by 14 points or more after 3 quarters. https://stathead.com/tiny/FLHOz Team record is 19-19-3 in those games.
Music used: Rabi-Ribi OST (Rabi Rabi Shop, Adventure Starts Here, Plan B, Plurkwood, Nightwalker) https://store.steampowered.com/app/40...