U.S. Equities: Seas Still Calm, but negative forces are growing
#investmentadvisor #stockstowatch #investments #stockmarket #illinois
Good afternoon. We are an Illinois registered investment advisor talking about what we see in the market from our Chicago Quantum Net Score model run.
The stock market has calmed down, and we are calling a 'local top' in the market at the S&P 500 just below 4,600. We called it today, at 4,856. Why do we say this? We see market headwinds from our quantitative analytical model.
We will share information from our model run, from the stock market, with the help of Yahoo Finance and Google Sheets, and intuition.
We have a coupon code for our model runs that gives clients 90% off through the end of 2023. That code is QED-C.
This is not investment advice. This is meant to be entertainment, a bit of education, and sharing our ideas and perspectives (like the talking heads do on TV). This is largely what we observe in the market.
We notice that the stock market has calmed down quite a bit. Interest rates are coming down, stock price volatility is lower for the S&P 500, but not for all stocks (oops, first time we see this in a while), and the stocks chosen by our model are more consistent have less edge than the S&P 500 index.
This is different. The edge is changing. The index is doing better. This is not good for stock picking.
So, if stock price volatility is increasing, that means expected returns on new money have to increase, and that means prices of stocks have to fall (if the 1950s theory is right, and we believe it is). We believe in the sharpe ratio and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM).
We will also discuss dividends, negative beta stocks, and will share our coupon code for 90% off our Chicago Quantum Net Score model runs.
Finally, I cover the research we are doing in the South China Seas and a few of the islands that are in the news currently. This is at the end, so many viewers can drop off beforehand.
Disclosure: We do not own any individual stocks in our portfolio, nor any options on individual stocks, nor are we short any stocks. We are free to discuss things since all of our investments right now are passive and indexed and managed by someone else. In other words, we are 100% in cash as we record this.
We will document our notes on the call and post them in the YouTube Video Details, or on our website at www.chicagoquantum.com.
Not investment advice.
Jeffrey Cohen
Chicago Quantum
U.S. Advanced Computing Infrastructure, Inc.