In February 2022, a Coronal Mass Ejection led to 38 commercial satellites being lost. Solar plasma from a geomagnetic storm heated the atmosphere, causing denser gases to expand into the satellites’ orbit, which increased atmospheric drag on the satellites and caused them to de-orbit. Johns Hopkins APL-led Center for Geospace Storms (CGS) is building a Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment (MAGE) supercomputer model to predict space weather. The physics-based MAGE simulation reproduced the storm-time atmospheric density enhancement much better than empirical or standalone ionosphere-thermosphere models, emphasizing the need for fully-coupled whole-of-geospace models for predicting space weather events.
This animation demonstrates the Earth’s magnetosphere being hit by a geomagnetic storm on February 3, 2022, simulated by MAGE during the storm that caused the loss of commercial satellites. The green current density shows where magnetic current is strong. Lines tracing out the magnetic field are purple in regions of weaker magnetism, and orange-yellow where the magnetic field is strongest. Blue tracers in the velocity field represent the solar wind, and they have been calibrated to appear brightest when they are moving toward the Earth.