How to Build An Expected Goals Model 1: Data and Model
David Sumpter goes through the steps needed to create an expected goals model. This lecture covers:
Why Expected Goals are Important
Plotting 2D histogram of shot and goal positions
Shot angle
How probability of scoring depends on shot angle and distance
The code for this lecture can be found here:
https://github.com/Friends-of-Trackin...
Specifically, I use 3xGModel.py
Using Wyscout data from: https://figshare.com/collections/Socc...
References discussed in lecture:
Michael Caley on expected goals: https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation...
Accuracy of expected goals:
/ should-you-write-about-real-goals-or-expec...
Trigonometry of shot angle: Morales, César A. "A mathematics-based new penalty area in football: tackling diving." Journal of sports sciences 34, no. 24 (2016): 2233-2237.