Predicting global population trends | Celebrating impact
Population projections are essential to understand the future, how fast a population is ageing, where people will live, how many houses we need and so on. An ageing population with rapid decline can create problems for societies as they need to find ways to care for older people whilst dealing with a shrinking labour force.
In 2010, the UN predicted that fertility in East Asia would rise until the end of the century. In-depth research led by Dr Stuart Basten from the University of Oxford into Asian #fertility helped convince the United Nations to revise its influential forecasts on future #population trends, with particularly large effects for Pacific Asian economies.
Stuart and the team analysed the existing data, as well as asking women about their fertility plans, how many children, if any, they were planning and when. They discovered that more women only planned to have one child which would have a big impact on population growth.
Taking an evidence-based approach helps foster better social and economic planning to benefit governments and societies. Watch the video to learn more.
Dr Basten won Second Prize for 'Outstanding International Impact' at the ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize 2014. The ESRC Celebrating Impact Prize recognises and rewards the successes of ESRC-funded researchers achieving outstanding economic and societal impacts.
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