January 2024, Phoenix home sales
Valley population is nearly 37% higher today than it was in 2008. But 2023 saw the fewest number of home sales in the valley since then, making it a challenging year for both the industry and those looking to buy or sell a home.
One significant factor contributing to last year's decline in sales was the surge in home mortgage rates, which reached a peak of 8% in mid-October—which is the first time we’ve seen rates that high since June 2000. However, mortgage rates have decreased over the last few months, causing an expectation of increased buyer activity. Although this didn’t occur in December - few people are home shopping around the holidays- we are seeing increased buyer activity since the beginning of this year.
While buyer activity is on an upward trend in 2024, the numbers lag slightly behind last year's figures. Low buyer activity isn't ideal for sellers, but it provides buyers with less competition.
Valley-wide, our market currently favors sellers, with a mild seller's market due to decreased demand but even lower supply. However, market conditions vary across different parts of the Valley.
For instance, Chandler currently stands out as the market with the strongest seller’s advantage, with demand down over 47% and supply down over 71% from where we expect it to be, which gives sellers the upper hand.
Of the 17 largest cities in the valley, other cities experiencing a seller's market from strongest to weakest are Fountain Hills, Gilbert, Glendale, Phoenix, Scottsdale, Mesa, Avondale, Tempe, and Peoria. We currently have four cities in a balanced market, where neither buyer or seller have an advantage. They are Surprise, Goodyear, Paradise Valley, and Cave Creek. Cities where buyers have a strong advantage in negotiations are Queen Creek, Buckeye, and Maricopa where supply significantly exceeds the demand for resale homes in those areas.
Understanding market conditions is crucial for sellers pricing their homes and buyers determining how to make a competitive offer. If you're ready to make a move in the near future, you have a trusted advisor here to help you take advantage of whatever conditions exist in your part of the valley. And that’s me.