AGI Takeoff By 2036
Full Takeoff Model by Tom Davidson
Website: takeoffspeeds.com
OUTLINE
00:00 recap (using takeoff speed angle)
04:57 visualizing effective FLOP gap
05:46 intuititive plot for AGI compute requirement
08:13 AI R&D automation before full automation
12:32 AGI requirements vs takeoff speed
13:10 1e30 Average crossing speed is higher
15:22 slow takeoff isn't actually slow
16:38 simulating "fast" vs "slow" takeoff
17:22 main takeaway / outro