World population growth scenarios /2020 - 2100/
This ranking is based on the world population projections for the period 2020 - 2100.
Definitions:
Medium fertility: it takes into account the past experience of each country, while also reflecting uncertainty about future changes based on the past experience of other countries under similar conditions.
High fertility: total fertility is projected to reach a fertility level that is 0.5 births above the total fertility in the medium variant.
Low fertility: total fertility is projected to remain 0.5 births below the total fertility in the medium variant.
Constant fertility: total fertility remains constant at the level estimated for 2015-2020.
Instant replacement fertility: for each 5-year period the total fertility rate is set to the level that, taking into consideration the mortality rate ensures a net reproduction rate of 1.0 starting in 2020-2025. It is normally presented as being around 2.1 children per woman.
Constant mortality: it uses medium fertility, and international migration assumption as the medium variant.
No change: both fertility and mortality are kept constant
Zero migration: it has the same assumption about international migration as the medium variant but differs from the latter by having constant fertility and mortality.
Momentum: Instant replacement fertility, constant mortality, and zero migration.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019, Online Edition. Rev. 1.
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