The Next California Earthquake - Documentary Trailer
An upcoming documentary about California's future earthquake risks.
The last large movement on the southernmost section of the San Andreas Fault was over 300 years ago, but geological records indicate that it averages 180 years between strong earthquakes.
There is officially a 97% risk of a major earthquake in Southern California in the next 25 years, and a 99.7% risk statewide.
Enough stress has built up on the San Andreas Fault for a magnitude 8.2 earthquake, although the probability of this is low.
A 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the southern segment would kill thousands of people in Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside and surrounding counties, destroy vital lifelines like gas, water, and electricity across the state, and cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.
The threat of a massive rupture, talked about for many years but poorly understood by the public, warrants further investigation to completely explore the risks of a large movement on this 800 mile long fault.
California is the world's 5th largest economy and most populated US state, and will require extensive state and federal funds to recover from a looming disaster such as this one. Despite these dire projections, there are countless ways to mitigate the outcome. Scientists say it's the simple things everyone can do that will make the situation much less dangerous when it happens.
The last large movement of the San Andreas was the 7.9 Fort Tejon quake in 1857. This occurred on the segment of the fault that runs closest to Los Angeles. The 1857 segment of the San Andreas Fault is also within the window of a possible rupture, and recent studies have explored the possibility of a rupture on both segments of the fault simultaneously.
While there are hundreds of published articles about the San Andreas fault, scientists are just beginning to learn breakthrough lessons in earthquake behavior and the dangers of miscalculating potential risks.
Featured in the documentary are seismologists Dr. Kate Hutton of Caltech, Dr. Debi Kilb of the University of San Diego and Dr. Thomas Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center.