2024 Iowa Caucus Prediction Based On Current Polls
We are less than two weeks away from the 2024 Iowa caucuses. And while it may seem like we have a clear picture of what's going to happen, things could be closer than expected.
In 2016, Donald Trump held about a 5 point lead on average heading into the Iowa caucuses, including a 5 point lead in the gold standard of Iowa polling — the Selzer and Company poll published in the Des Moines Register.
But on caucus night, Trump underperformed his poll numbers, losing to Ted Cruz by more than 3% and only just finishing ahead of Marco Rubio.
Will history repeat itself in 2024?
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0:00 Intro
0:09 What Happened In 2016?
0:33 2024 Iowa Caucus Polls
1:02 Can Ron DeSantis Finish 2nd?
1:44 Could Trump Actually Lose?
2:34 The Delegate Math
3:09 What Happens After The Iowa Caucus
3:24 A 2020 Rematch?
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