EDIT: Build guide for 3.24 -
• PoE 3.24 | Comprehensive Explosive Trap of...
Quick overview of how the AoE changes and base phys increase affects damage and clear, along with a demonstration of exactly what the new AoE looks like on Shrapnel.
Big sad about mana for high investment.
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To calculate overlaps for Explosive Trap you calculate the area where any spawning of a smaller explosion center point will incur a hit on a point, then ratio it to the total area that the explosions can spawn.
The way to do that is to ignore the +/-30% variance in the explosion and use the area of the hitbox and add the smaller explosion radius and calculate that area. We know this works because inversely any spawn point on the edge of this circle would reach out to the center and connect. The ratio of that area to the secondary radius where smaller explosions can spawn will tell you the odds any given smaller explosion will hit the center point.
You can ignore the +/-30% variance because the radius itself will grow/shrink linearly and average over time to whatever the base number is, and for this calculation we only care about the smaller explosions reach back towards the center point, which is the radius, and not the area. If we needed to instead calculate the area we'd need to incorporate the non-linear growth of area relative to radius.
Most monster hitboxes are of size 0.3m, with the exception of some bosses which go up to 1.1m, but for the sake of comparison 0.3m is a good yard stick.
Old Gem (level 20):
pi * (1.9 + 0.3)^2 / pi * (3.6)^2
15.20/ 40.69
0.37 or 37% chance for a given smaller explosion to hit the center point.
New Gem (level 20):
pi * (1.3 + 0.3)^2 / pi * (3.0)^2
8.04 / 28.26
0.28 or 28% chance for a given smaller explosion to hit the center point.
This gives us a rough loss in overlaps of ~23.4% against a gained 11.7% phys dmg.