Cautionary Scientific Analysis: Climatological Notes on Global Land-Surface Temperatures
This is a video summary of a study examining global land-surface temperature data from January 1750 to December 2021. A key feature of the study is the use of fat tailed distributions to capture potential climate extremes.
*A tentative finding is a warming trend of global land-surface temperatures since 1750 to the latest subperiod that begins in the year of the 1992 UN climate talks.
*Unexpectedly, the analysis also suggests that despite warming, the planet may still be much colder than suggested by a Normality-based framework. Therefore, future efforts to artificially cool the globe may warrant further study. Qualifications and shortcomings are noted in the Appendix.
The document is found here: https://raoulkennedy.substack.com/p/c...
REFERENCES AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Berkeley Earth, “Temperature Report 2021,” Data Overview and Raw Global Land-Surface TAVG based on the Complete Berkeley Dataset at berkeleyearth.org/data/ and berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Raw_TAVG_complete.txt (accessed 2022).
Chandler M.A. (2009). “Mid-Pliocene Warming,” in Gornitz V. (eds), Encyclopedia of Paleoclimatology and Ancient Environments. Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series. Springer, Dordrecht. doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4411-3_141
Cook, John. D., “Thick Tails,” John D. Cook Applied Mathematics Consulting, January 18, 2008
Cooke, Roger, et al., Fat-Tailed Distributions: Data, Diagnostics and Dependence, Wiley-ISTE, Vol. 1, 2014
Council on Foreign Relations., “UN Climate Talks,” 2022. www.cfr.org/timeline/un-climate-talks
Emiliani, Cesare.,“Pleistocene Temperatures,” The Journal of Geology,Volume 63, Number 6,
Nov., 1955.//doi.org/10.1086/626295
Hatfield, Jerry L., Prueger, John H., "Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development," Weather and Climate Extremes, Volume 10, Part A, December 2015, Pages 4-10
//www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300116
Matsuura, Kenji & National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds)., "The Climate Data Guide: Global (land) precipitation and temperature: Willmott & Matsuura, University of Delaware,” last modified March 8, 2022. climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/global-land-precipitation-and-temperature-willmott-matsuura-university-delaware.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), “Pliocene Global Warming: A Warm Time in the Past,” Accessed March 27, 2022
www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/199704_pliocene/page2.html
Phys.org (Cordis), “Global warming – we have lessons to learn from the Pliocene epoch,” February 9, 2018. phys.org/news/2018-02-global-lessons-pliocene-epoch.html
Simpson, G.G., "World Climate During the Quaternary Period," Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 60, Issue 257, October 1934, Pages 425-478.
//doi.org/10.1002/qj.49706025706
Taleb, Nassim., Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World: Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications, STEM Academic Press, 2020.
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Methodological notes and Applications: "Cautionary Tails Framework and Applications" at https://issuu.com/raoulkennedy/docs
For technical details, authoritative references and expert exposition of underlying concepts, see for example:
MathWave (TM) Technologies applications.
Cook, John D. (2018: “Six Sigma Events,” May 31; “Obesity Index” April 23); (also re: Cook Consulting)
Cooke, Roger, Fat-Tailed Distributions 2014;
Taleb, Nassim, et al., "Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails," STEM Academic Press, 2020