Cautionary Financial Analysis; CF Industries, Interim 2022
This video presents the Cautionary analysis for CF Industries (CF) as of interim 2022, with a focus on fragility and non-market forces.
Corresponding Report: https://raoulkennedy.substack.com/p/c...
Related Agronomic Study: https://raoulkennedy.substack.com/p/a...
Introduction to Cautionary GFA
Can businesses cover their debt service and dividend payments?
Cautionary Global Financial Analysis (GFA) and Stress Testing reports focus on the underlying capacity of firms to cover their debt service and grow their dividends for more informed borrowing and investing decisions.
(*)Notes:
1. Preliminary; estimates are approximations and not forecasts. 2. 'Global' generally refers to firms with international operations; 3. Percentages (e.g. 16%) and Proportions (e.g. 0.16): Cash flow-based metrics are in percentages (of revenues) while coverage and exposure metrics are proportions within a range of 0 to 1; these proportions may alternatively be stated as a percentage (0.06 may be stated as 6% out of 100%) using a range of 0% to 100%. 4. Verbal qualifiers of estimates may at times be inconsistent across analyses, therefore actual estimates should be given priority for comparisons.
Resources
1. Introduction--Cautionary Financial Analysis and Stress Testing on this channel. • Cautionary Financial Analysis and Stress T...
2. Complex System Dynamics playlist on this channel.
Other Financial reports: See Cautionary Stress Testing, Dividend Coverage Roundup and other reports. https://seekingalpha.com/user/471740/...
Free Courses Available on this topic:
https://equity-income-education.think...
1. Data Mining for Cash Flow
2. Cautionary Stress Testing Mini-Course
Financial and economics books:
Debt Management Analytics, Dividend Coverage Analytics (2021), Yield Distortion Dynamics (2020), Financial Distortion Dynamics (2018), and others:
https://www.amazon.com/author/raoulke...
Artworks
Collections: Sketching Economics, Financial Visualizations
https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/r...
System Dynamics "One Sketch" Series on this channel (economics and financial focus): Artwork that aims to present a full topic in one sketch.
Methodological notes: "Cautionary Tails Framework and Applications" at
https://issuu.com/raoulkennedy/docs
For technical details, authoritative references and expert exposition of underlying concepts, see for example:
Cook, John D. (2018: “Six Sigma Events,” May 31; “Obesity Index” April 23); (also re: Cook Consulting)
Cooke, Roger, Fat-Tailed Distributions 2014;
Taleb, Nassim, et al., "Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails," STEM Academic Press, 2020.