The Bitcoin Narrative Has Changed
Bitcoin has slumped from its November high of ~$69,000 to ~$17,000, a decline of ~75% from peak to valley. Everyone wants to know the answer to one question: Have we seen the bottom or could we go lower? This video builds the foundation of why I think we could go lower, specifically focusing on the risk-off behavior we have seen in markets since the start of 2022. While I believe you can argue that risk assets are currently undervalued due to their 2022 declines, I suspect they are still overvalued as we haven't seen a tightening cycle as severe as this one.
It is my opinion that the investment narrative for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has shifted from its "4 year cycle" or crypto-specific catalysts to this bigger picture, risk-off vs risk-on narrative. As such, the video does not focus on upcoming events like the Merge or historical events like the collapse of Luna, although these are topics for future videos. I hope you enjoy it!
0:00 - Bitcoin & Risk Assets
1:28 - Risk Off Example (Growth Stocks)
2:53 - Lending and Credit Spreads
5:21 - Jerome Powell comments on Inflation
6:01 - Quantitative Easing
7:38 - Interest Rates
8:54 - Venture Capital & IPO Activity
11:03 - Connecting it to Crypto
12:10 - Conclusion: Is Risk / Bitcoin Overvalued or Undervalued?
14:09 - Thanks for Watching!
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