Japan's Covid miracle had nothing to do with Ivermectin
This is in response to Dr. John Campbell's "Miracle in Japan" (now retitled "Ivermectin in Japan") video
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CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction
1:29 The Covid situation in Japan
2:00 Dr. Campbell's claim about Ivermectin in Japan
4:00 What the Chair of the Tokyo Medical Association said about Ivermectin, and when
6:00 Examining the actual data on Covid cases in Japan
7:56 The 2020 Olympics coincided with the onset of new cases in July-August 2021
9:00 Examining incoming overseas travel data
10:40 A five-fold increase in inbound visitors to Japan just prior to the Olympics
11:30 The spike in visitors preceded the spike in new Covid cases
13:02 The simultaneous ramp-up of Japan's vaccination program
14:02 The three timelines
15:06 Correlation vs causation
15:59 Dr Campbell's fantastical idea
REGARDING OTHER TOPICS FROM DR. CAMPBELL'S VIDEO
Several viewers have asked in the comments why I didn't respond to the other topics in Dr. Campbell's video. My response in the comments to one of those comments is here:
In all honesty, it was extremely difficult for me to resist discussing the other topics in his video, which are related to molecular evolution and protein biochemistry, both closer to my own specialisation. But I got a lot of (justifiable) criticism for my last video being far too long, and I really wanted to keep this one under 20 minutes. I tend to ramble, and the prospect of waxing on about those other two topics was like throwing chum to a shark. I'm glad I resisted :-)
But since you ask: the idea that SARS-Cov-2 might have mutated itself out of business in Japan is an evolutionary genetic phenomenon that can appear like a paradox: it's called "Muller's ratchet". It can happen, at least in the lab, and the statistical genetics have been well studied. But it requires an almost complete absence of genetic recombination. SARS-Cov-2 is known to undergo recombination. So if Muller's ratchet is really happening in Japan, it's almost surely because there's very little circulating virus to create opportunity for overcoming Muller's ratchet. Once they start allowing more visitors in, for example or return to "normal", it's unlikely to continue.
The APOBEC3A mutation (it's an APOBEC3A/3B fusion that is seen in about 40% of east Asians) is intersting, and also related to cancer genetics. Again, this is all closer to my field of specialisation, so it was really hard to resist holding forth as a professor!
The particular protein mutation he talked about is also interesting, and is, as I understand it, being studied by a number of groups. What it means for the viral evolution overall remains to be seen.
DISCLAIMER
This video is for educational purposes only.
DECLARATION
I have no conflicts of interest. I do not receive any funding or compensation from anyone making or developing treatments for Covid-19, including vaccines or antivirals.
RESOURCES AND ADDITIONAL REFERENCES
Dr. Campbell's original video • Ivermectin in Japan
Our World in Data: Japan https://ourworldindata.org/coronaviru...
Japanese tourism statistics https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-dat...
Code to reproduce the analysis in this video https://github.com/gtuckerkellogg/jap...
REGARDING UTTAR PRADESH
Here's an article from an Indian magazine published 03 September 2020 about Ivermectin in UP. https://caravanmagazine.in/health/utt...
Here's an research article about excess mortality in India during the pandemic. It shows, among other things, that i) deaths from Covid probably far exceeded the official tallies across India, and that ii) deaths in UP paralleled those in other states that didn't use ivermectin https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.04.21...
EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH IVERMECTIN FOR COVID-19
Event-Based Surveillance of Poisonings and Potentially Hazardous Exposures over 12 Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic https://www.mdpi.com/resolver?pii=ije...
Toxic Effects from Ivermectin Use Associated with Prevention and Treatment of Covid-19 https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJM...