Saskatchewan Farmland Price Surge, Buyer's Market Shift
The episode discusses long historical farmland drawdowns and retracements, including a 19-year 50% retracement around 1921/2020, a roughly 21% drop in 1968 over four years, and a 60%+ decline after 1981 that lasted 12 years when prices broke below a two-year rate EMA.
Using current calculations with a 5% drop trigger, the speaker suggests more downside may be developing, though a sell signal has not yet triggered.
From a market perspective, the conversation notes that since about 2010—and especially from roughly 2012 until two years ago—farmland inventory for sale fell from about 800 farms in January to about 200, contributing to rising prices due to limited supply and strong demand.
Recently, January listings have increased from about 200 to about 300 (a ~50% rise), though demand remains strong and buyers are still competing heavily.
The hosts also reference Farm Credit’s land affordability index, stating Saskatchewan now ranks as the least affordable in Western Canada (most expensive relative to land-generated proceeds), making it harder for farmland to cash flow on its own; they note that 10 years ago affordability was lower, which attracted investors seeking returns. Saskatchewan is described as now marginally more expensive than Alberta and Manitoba by this metric.
The discussion emphasizes farmland’s role as a real asset and store of wealth (inflation hedge) that is easy to borrow against and low maintenance, and advises buyers that while affordability is at record highs, purchasing can still make sense for strategic, long-term horizons if risk is mitigated.
The episode closes with a technical-analysis view: prices are at a key trend line level, the speaker would be cautious about buying here, and they are watching how prices react if a 5% drop occurs and downside continues.
00:00 Historic Farmland Downturns & the 5% Warning Signal
00:42 Inventory Squeeze Since 2010: Why Prices Kept Climbing
01:36 Listings Rising Again: Early Signs Supply Is Loosening
02:11 Farm Credit’s Land Affordability Index Explained
03:15 Investors Follow Returns: Saskatchewan vs Alberta & Manitoba
03:49 Buyers’ Reality Check: Long-Term Strategy & Risk Mitigation
04:14 Why Farmland Still Wins: Inflation Hedge, Wealth Store, Easy Leverage
05:13 What to Do Now: Reading the Chart, Trendline Caution & Waiting for Reaction
06:15 If Prices Start Sliding: Speculating on the Next Leg Down (Wrap-Up)
Disclaimer:
Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Our videos and other content produced by Klarenbach Research are for informational, educational, or entertainment purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice.
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