Studying COVID 19 Spread Using a Geography Based Cellular Model
The study of infectious disease models has become increasingly important during the COVID-19 pandemic. The forecasting of disease spread using mathematical models has become a common practice by public health authorities, assisting in the creation of policies to combat the spread of COVID-19. Common approaches to the modeling of infectious diseases include compartmental differential equations and Cellular Automata, both of which do not easily model the spatial dynamics of disease spread over unique geographical regions. A geography-based Cell-DEVS approach to modeling pandemics is presented. The compartmental model presented considers additional factors such as movement restriction effects, disease incubation, population disobedience to public health guidelines, and a dynamic fatality rate. The model offers deterministic predictions for any number of regions simultaneously and can be easily adapted to unique geographical areas.