POE How Orbs Of Conflict Work & How Rigged They Are - Path of Exile - Discovered 3.21, Current 3.22
#POE #PathOfExile #Crafting
09-Oct-2023 Update: This appears still accurate in patch 3.22. Note that this was originally posted during the Reddit shutdown protest 3 months back.
It's always 50-50... except when it isn't
The Orb of Conflict drops from the Uber Maven, Maven and some Invitations, and is a very important crafting currency at endgame. But unlike most other currency items in PoE, its odds haven't been well documented - until now.
Probability findings originally from blvcksvn on Reddit with the help of PoorFishWife, markov chain parts are my addition.
Raw data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
0:00 Intro
1:00 Quick note on the Reddit boycott & why I'm not linking the original post
1:38 Probabilities using one Orb of Conflict
2:30 Using statistics (Markov Chains) to extend this to repeat Orb use
4:06 Example of the Markov Chain approach, starting with Exquisite tier aura effect on a chest, and an Exceptional tier second mod
4:44 How long does it take to reach an endpoint on average?
5:00 How to make your own model of Orbs of Conflict (if you don't have a stats background)
Markov Chain online calculator: https://www.statskingdom.com/markov-c...
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