Revealing Market Insights: U.S. Elections, FOMC, and Disastrous NFP Data!
As we enter the most decisive week of 2024, it’s clear that the U.S. elections and the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision are the events traders have been anticipating since January. The market is bracing for high volatility, and I’m here to break it all down for you.
Let’s not forget the disaster of last Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. The forecast was for 124,000 new jobs, but the economy only added 12,000—far below expectations. This weak labor data contributed to a significant gap in the EUR/USD, with the pair opening 40 to 50 pips higher, a direct reflection of economic uncertainty.
Beyond the NFP, election polling is heavily influencing market sentiment. Betting platforms like Polymarket show fluctuating probabilities between Trump and Kamala Harris. Trump had a commanding 65.7% chance of winning but dropped to 56.7% after market open. This swing suggests growing uncertainty, causing additional pressure on the U.S. dollar. Should Harris secure the presidency, we could see the Eurodollar push up to 1.12.
With so much at stake, I’ll be providing in-depth coverage throughout the week. Don’t miss my live webinars on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday to get the latest insights as these crucial events unfold.
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00:00 Intro
01:20 Non-Farm Payroll Review
02:14 EURUSD Analysis
04:00 US Election Polls and Outlook
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