Weekly Wrap Up March 24, 2026
Recapping Last Week
Market Performance & Energy
• U.S. equities fell for the fourth straight week amid ongoing Iran–Israel conflict impacting energy markets.
• Brent–WTI crude spread widened to the largest in 11 years as Brent surged on supply risks.
• WTI crude fell 1% to ~$98; Brent spiked above $119 before settling near $112.
• European natural gas prices jumped nearly 30% after Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East.
• Some relief emerged as several European nations and Japan offered support for safe tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Energy and financials were the only positive S&P sectors; energy is up 32% YTD.
U.S. Markets & Fed Policy
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 2%; Russell 2000 dropped 1.7%.
• Treasury yields climbed sharply; precious metals declined.
• Fed held rates steady but projected higher inflation, stable employment, and just one rate cut for the year.
• Chair Powell noted uncertainty around the war’s economic impact but acknowledged rising inflation expectations driven by higher oil prices.
Economic Data (U.S.)
• Producer Price Index rose more than expected: +0.7% MoM and +3.4% YoY.
• Manufacturing was flat in New York but continued expanding in Philadelphia.
• January new home sales fell 17% MoM to the slowest pace since 2022.
• Builders cut prices amid weak demand; median new home price dropped nearly 7% YoY to $400,500.
Global Central Banks
• Australia raised rates for the second consecutive month in a tight 5–4 vote.
• Bank of Japan held rates steady but signaled potential April hike.
• Central banks in Canada, Europe, and the UK kept rates unchanged amid uncertain growth and inflation outlooks.
• UK gilt yields hit their highest levels since 2008.
• Traders expect 2–3 rate hikes in Europe this year, though economists largely expect no change.
China
• Stronger than expected retail sales and industrial production provided an early year boost to China’s economy.
The Week Ahead
Market Focus
• Middle East conflict enters a fourth week and remains the primary driver of market sentiment.
• Oil prices expected to continue influencing risk appetite; prolonged conflict increases risks to the global economic outlook.
Key Economic Data
• Tuesday: Global flash PMIs will be the first reports that may show early effects of higher energy prices, including potential supply chain pressures and rising input costs.
• U.S. data calendar is light, with Friday’s updates on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations being the main highlights.
Rates & Currency
• Last week’s jump in the 10 year Treasury yield to 4.4% has raised investor concerns.
• The U.S. dollar may resume strengthening following the recent FOMC meeting.
• Fed projections show 7 of 19 officials now expecting no rate cuts in 2026, up from six in December.
International Developments
• Upcoming consumer inflation reports from Japan, Australia, and the UK will provide insight into pre conflict inflation trends.
• These reports will not yet capture the recent energy driven price pressures but will help shape expectations.
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