Weekly Wrap Up April 28, 2026
Recapping Last Week
• U.S. equities paused after April rally: Markets were mostly flat, except for a ~2% Nasdaq 100 gain; consolidation was expected after the S&P 500 rose nearly 12% from its March 30 low.
• Leadership beneath the surface: While the Magnificent 7 participated, semiconductor stocks drove performance, supported by Intel’s strong revenue outlook and a broader chip rally.
• Oil prices surged: WTI crude rose ~12%, staying elevated due to Middle East supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz, despite a late week pullback on U.S.–Iran diplomacy hopes.
• Rates and Fed expectations shifted: Treasury yields drifted higher as expectations for Fed rate cuts continued to fade amid higher oil prices and geopolitical risks.
• Strong U.S. consumer data: March retail sales jumped 1.7% (best in over a year), showing consumers haven’t pulled back despite higher gas prices.
• Housing resilience: Pending home sales rose 1.5% even as mortgage rates increased.
• Economic activity expanded: Manufacturing and services PMIs stayed above 50, lifting the S&P Global Composite PMI to 52.
• Labor market steady: Jobless claims rose modestly to 214K, not signaling material labor weakness.
• Sentiment divergence: Consumer sentiment fell near 2022 bear market lows, contrasting with equities near record highs.
• Policy uncertainty: Ongoing Iran conflict and concerns sparked by incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s “regime change” testimony added to uncertainty.
• Global markets weaker than U.S.:
• Europe: German flash composite PMI fell to 48.3, IFO Business Climate weakened, and eurozone consumer sentiment hit a 3 year low.
• U.K.: Unemployment rose to 5.2% while CPI increased to 3.3%, underscoring persistent inflation.
• Japan: Core inflation accelerated to 1.8%, selling prices rose at a record pace, and manufacturing slowed.
• Australia: PMIs returned to expansion, but inflation climbed to a 4 year high.
The Week Ahead
• Fed meeting is the key risk: Markets are focused less on the rate decision and more on the Fed’s statement and press conference—particularly how policymakers frame inflation persistence, oil driven price risks, growth resilience, and any path toward future rate cuts.
• Equity momentum slowing: Stocks continued to grind higher despite rising yields, firmer energy prices, and geopolitical risks, but the rally is losing momentum as policy and diplomatic uncertainties accumulate.
• U.S. data to watch: Labor market data, retail sales indicators, and PMIs will signal whether growth remains resilient or if higher energy costs are starting to weigh on activity.
• Major economic releases: Thursday brings core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), advance quarterly GDP, and weekly jobless claims.
• Earnings stress test: Mega cap tech earnings—Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple—will test equity leadership and investor confidence in AI capex, cloud demand, margins, and continued index dominance.
• Global central bank focus: Rate decisions or statements from Japan, Canada, and the U.K. are due, along with eurozone M3 money supply data.
• Europe in focus: Investors will watch whether weak European activity persists and how the ECB responds.
• Geopolitics and energy remain critical: Developments involving Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices will heavily influence markets throughout the week.
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